April 23, 2002
Lies, Damned Lies and Hundredths
Lies, Damned Lies and Hundredths
By Gregg Easterbrook
Special to Page 2
"We couldn't believe he was still there!" Well, Tuesday Morning Quarterback could believe it.
Of all the draft clichés -- and they abound -- "we couldn't believe he was still there!" is most grating. He was there because 31 other teams passed, and usually there's a reason. When TMQ was dating, he'd call some chick in desperation at 4 p.m. Saturday afternoon and think happily, "I couldn't believe she didn't already have a date!" Later that night, straggling back to the apartment, I could believe it.
And on the subjects of clichés, how about "We're really, really happy about our draft." No coach has ever said, "Boy, what a bunch of who-dats and instant has-beens we just picked up." Though every team professes to be "really, really happy" on draft day, statistically most will not be happy once they've had the selectees around for long. Most can't be happy; this would only be possible if all players were above average.
Seahawks coach Mike Holmgren is -- what else? -- really, really happy with top pick Jerramy Stevens.
Coaches say they are "really, really happy" about their picks because, when asked how the draft went, they are in effect evaluating themselves, and what are they going to do but award themselves praise? They made the choices; of course they will claim to have chosen well. Shortly after the Seahawks threw a second-round pick out the window to tab who-dat DE Anton Palepoi, whom most services rated a seventh-rounder -- and threw the pick out the window with Ryan Denney, a well-rated DE, still available -- Guru Genius Coach Mike Holmgren told ESPN, "I really like him." Holmgren surely wasn't going to say, "I just threw a pick out the window."
(Records note: Holmgren's predecessor Dennis Erickson was fired for going 31-33; the Guru Genius is 24-25 in Seattle, yet inexplicably viewed as secure.)
Actually, Holmgren's exact quote about the soon-to-be-forgotten Anton Palepoi was, "Quite frankly, I really like him." The oleaginous, politician-like habit of using these words -- diplomats say "quite frankly, the ocean is blue," while members of the United States Senate say "quite frankly, I'm going to have the turkey sandwich" --- has been sweeping the football world. Last season, Dan Dierdorf and Dennis Miller intoned this empty phrase once every 15 minutes. "Quite frankly" is employed to suggest false confidence, but carries meaning only when the speaker is normally evasive or dishonest. Is Holmgren normally deceiving us when he says he likes a player?
Quite frankly, still more grating about draft weekend is this obsession with minute quasi-statistics. You see players listed as 6-foot-2-and-1/8, as if an eighth of an inch had any meaning whatsoever. You see 300-pound athletes called undersized. For example, the $19.95 PFW Draft Preview, draft mania's best bargain, said the 6-4, 300-pound guard Frank Romero "lacks size" and declared the 6-4, 300-pound tackle Joaquin Gonzalez "limited in terms of size."
(NFL personnel guys, who pride themselves on their incredible insider information, would do well to study the PFW Draft Preview. For instance, in 1993, it cautioned that punter Ed Bunn had such terrible form, he sometimes kicked himself in the facemask. Unheeding, the R*dsk*ns -- TMQ will explain in a future column why he won't use that name -- took Bunn in the third round and the gentleman never played a down, though he did kick himself in the facemask several times in practice.)
The phony stat that drives TMQ to distraction is hundredths of a second. Covering the draft, ESPN on-air bobbleheads Chris Berman, Mel Kiper and Jimmy Johnson engaged in a preposterous symposium on the subject of whether Donte Stallworth ran the 40 in 4.23 seconds, 4.25 seconds or 4.26 seconds.
Does Donte Stallworth run the 40 in 4.23, 4.25 or 4.26? Oh, the horror!
(Except for this, the ESPN on-air crew was superb, insightful, magnificent;
TMQ plans to heap transparently self-serving praise on ESPN at every chance.)
One pundit on another network announced that OT Mike Williams is faster than OT Bryant McKinnie, because Williams runs the 40 in 5.28 while McKinnie takes 5.3. The New York Times ran an article with an extended section debating whether Dwight Freeney runs the 40 in 4.38 seconds or 4.45 seconds, and called this a big difference. Players weren't 4.4, 4.5 or 4.6. Everybody was a 4.37 or 4.48 or 4.52.
There is no statistical significance to a hundredth of a second. Set aside the standard-error problem, that small flaws in timing accuracy guarantee any measurements this small will contain approximations that void the supposed precision. Assume the timers are totally flawless. Comparing a 4.38 and 4.45 time in the 40, the first is 1 percent faster than the second. A distinction of 1 percent just can't matter. Suppose two gentlemen with these times ran a 40-yard race to the goal line, one as a receiver and one as a defender; the 4.38 player would arrive at the goal line 14 inches sooner. That might decide an Olympics sprint showdown, but half the length of a faceguard is not going to turn the tide of a football game. Please, announcers and draftniks: round all times to 10ths of a second, which do matter.
And did we ever hear about the Wonderlic test. The Wonderlic is essentially a simplified IQ test that can be taken in 12 minutes. Many NFL teams administer it to potential prospects. A perfect score is 50, and anyone who can read is supposed to be able to score a minimum of 10; according to the Green Bay Press Gazette, the Pack almost didn't draft first-round pick Javon Walker, because he scored a sub-literate 9. For details on the Wonderlic, see this sober and responsible analysis by Page 2's Jeff Merron. Sober and responsible -- Jeff, what were you thinking?
As an alternative to sober and responsible, click here to take TMQlic Test and see how you rate.
Enron certainly traded down
Both the ESPN analysts and others in the sports media worked themselves up Saturday about why more teams didn't trade down. Many said, for example, if the Bengals had wanted Levi Jones, who was expected to go late in the first, why not trade down from the 10th slot, acquire more picks and take him later? The draftniks class was adamant that the Bengals, Colts and other clubs should have traded down.
It's easy to say the Bengals could have got Levi Jones later in the first round. The problem for Cincy was getting a pick "later in the first round."
The problem is that every seller requires a buyer. Cincinnati can't trade out of the 10th position unless there is a team making an offer for that slot. Often, after the premium players go in the first few picks, there isn't much difference between who's available from the late single digits until the late first. So teams in that area of the round want to trade down, but can only do so if another team wants to trade up, surrendering extra choices and taking on the larger bonus of the higher-drafted player. If nobody wants to trade up -- and trading up is often foolish -- the team that wants to trade down cannot do so.
It's not like this is the stock market, where there is always a buyer for every seller. (Whenever stocks are falling, keep reminding yourself, for every buyer jumping out of the market today, another is jumping in; only when stocks are offered and no one wants them should you worry about the economy.)
Two-phase trade of the year
At the end of the 2001 draft, the Falcons panicked and swapped a fourth-rounder in 2002 to Denver for three seventh-round choices in 2001, surely one of the oddest deals ever. This year, the Falcons panicked and swapped a third-rounder in 2003 to Houston for a fourth to replace the pick promised to Denver the previous year. In effect, this means Atlanta traded a third-round choice for three seventh-round selections. Ye gods.
Tom Brady was glued to his laptop endlessly pressing "refresh"
In a sign of the times, news of the Drew Bledsoe trade came not via a press conference or a sportswriter's incredible insider access, but when the Patriots posted an announcement on their Web site.
Running Items Department:
Reader Animadversion
Reader Chris DeMay of Walnut Creek, Calif., asked, "What the hell does TMQ stand for?"
Chris, the phrase Tuesday Morning Quarterback was all over the column! TMQ his ownself often writes for The Atlantic Monthly magazine. Someone once walked up to me at a party and said, "Atlantic Monthly, how often does that come out?"
Many readers, including Eric Keningsberg of San Francisco, knew that HAL stood for "Heuristically ALgorithmic" computer and was a little joke because the letters are each shifted by one from IBM. Many readers, including Steve Ross of Denver, knew that HAL's programmer taught the evil computer to sing "Daisy, Daisy."
Don't worry, TMQ readers. We won't make you wait until next fall for a Raiderette photo.
Reader Benjamin Keys protested in haiku -- actually, in senryu -- the lack of any links to scantily clad women:
What? No mega-babes?
Britney hardly suffices!
We miss Raiderettes.
Keys refers to TMQ's practice, when this column appeared on Slate.com, of using any possible flimsy excuse to link to shamelessly prurient cheesecake photos of Anna Kournikova, Jennifer Lopez and aesthetically appealing NFL cheer-babes such as the Raiderettes. Well, fear not, Benjamin, Cheerleader of the Week will return when the season starts.
Oh, and did I mention that a lot of TMQ will be in haiku? Brace yourselves. When the season starts, "Reader Animadversion" will each week feature the best complaints about this column -- with TMQ getting the last word, of course. Start devising your clever comebacks now.
Nan's 80 Percent Chili
We had some friends over for the draft, and Nan Kennelly, Official Wife of TMQ, made peppery vegetarian chili. A few minutes after dinner, one of the five at the table stood up, looked around unhappily and fainted, mumbling about "Oh, this American food." OK, so she had just flown in from France, and was jet-lagged. The dish has now been named Nan's 80 Percent Chili, since 80 percent of those who partook did not faint. It will be marketed under the slogan, Most of Your Guests Are Sure to Like It®.
Tuesday Morning Quarterback Challenge
Last week's challenge was to find the phony entry amongst the 49 names in TMQ's preposterous forecast of the seventh round of the draft.
Many readers found the distracters -- Courtland Bullard of Ohio State was listed as being drafted twice, by Carolina and Miami (the real Bullard went to the Rams), while the compound names Marlon Moye-Moore and Antwan Kirk-Hughes were deliberately listed in the wrong order. Some readers supposed that Kojo Aidoo or Monsanto Pope or Syniker Taylor had to be made up. But these names are real, oh so real.
To TMQ's amazement, an incredible 125 readers identified the actual phony entry: San Francisco choosing "Dans LaPoubelle, LB, Indiana of Pennsylvania." Dans la poubelle means "into the trash" in French. That so many spotted this hidden touch of frog tells us that hundreds of people smart enough to remember their high-school language classes were spending valuable time poring over names of obscure football players in marching columns of tiny type on ESPN.com.
Readers -- you have your priorities in order!
On a completely arbitrary basis, this week's Challenge, and a stylish TMQ cap, goes to Carol Hamlin of New York City, greatest city in the world, who was among the many who caught LaPoubelle. Best comment goes to Kevin of Montreal, who supposed that LaPoubelle wouldn't be drafted by the Niners since, being bound for the dustbin, he was clearly "a Cincinnati or Arizona kind of guy."
There won't be a Challenge this week because the next Tuesday Morning Quarterback will not materialize on your screen until mid-August. Then they'll come weekly, till you scream for mercy.
Midway Point Warning
The draft marks the halfway point of the NFL offseason, that long, cold, lonely period between the peak of football hype and absurdity at the Super Bowl, and the resumption of same on opening day. This year NFL opening day is a Thursday -- don't they realize that's a school night? Nevertheless, consider yourself warned, we're halfway there.
Waitress, I need a blueberry-almond martini* quick!
(*Official Drink of TMQ.)
Posted by tien mao in TMQ at 9:40 AM
April 16, 2002
A real mockery of a draft
A real mockery of a draft
By Gregg Easterbrook
Special to Page 2
It's NFL draft week, and that means there are more mock drafts in circulation than Middle East peace plans. Of course, every single mock draft everywhere will be completely worthless in a couple of days -- hmm, again like Middle East peace plans. But Tuesday Morning Quarterback wonders, why don't mock drafts actually mock the draft? Here's one that does:
1. Houston Texans.
Heath Shuler, QB, Tennessee. The same CFL-style sidearm delivery, playing in the same kind of offense designed to run up stats on lesser opponents, the same optical illusion of seeming really tall but turning out not to be: When TMQ looks at David Carr, he sees Heath Shuler with a much better publicist. Consider this harmonic-convergence stat: Shuler, total passing 4,088 yards; Carr, 4,299 total passing yards. OK, so I'm comparing Shuler's entire college career to Carr's senior year, but these kinds of things just can't be coincidence. Shuler threw 25 TDs as a junior, Carr threw 23 TDs as a junior. Both finished their college daze by honking a bowl game, falling way behind, then piling up stats in the second half after the contest was out of reach. By the Hammer of Grabthar, Houston, you have been warned!
WHAT IS TMQ?
"The Web's most original and most irreverent sports column." That's what National Public Radio called Tuesday Morning Quarterback, which has run for the last two years on the e-zine Slate. Today this column debuts on ESPN.com. Beginning in August, as the NFL season ramps up, TMQ will appear every Tuesday morning through the Super Bowl. Ye gods!
Tuesday Morning Quarterback operates from the premise that pro football is an absurd artificial universe, and therefore takes nothing seriously. (Of course, there are entire NFL teams that treat pro football as an absurd artificial universe.) The column, subject of feature stories in the New York Times and USA Today, as well as on NPR, mixes hard football commentary with history, science, science fiction, politics and anything else that can be shoehorned in, regardless of relevancy.
TMQ is written by the super-respectable Gregg Easterbrook, who is a senior editor at the super-respectable New Republic, a contributing editor of the super-respectable Atlantic Monthly and a visiting fellow at the super-respectable Brookings Institution. Nothing about TMQ, however, is respectable. That's the best part.
2. Carolina Panthers.
Michael Jordan, G, North Carolina. He's shown that not even the greatest athlete of the postwar era can keep the dreadful Washington Wizards (102-193 since their canny decision to trade Chris Webber) from being dreadful. So now Michael has tried basketball, baseball and "basketball," which is what the Wizards play. Let him try football. Line him up at any position and see what happens -- fans will be grateful for any diversion from having to watch the Panthers. Ultimate crummy game: Carolina Panthers vs. Washington Wizards.
3. Detroit Lions.
Crown Prince Abdullah, regent, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (Official Kingdom Motto: "Where It's Always the 14th Century"). The Lions are owned by the Ford family, and the Ford family is owned by Saudi Arabia. Same for General Motors and Chrysler. Hey, we don't have to do anything about SUV mileage, the cheap gas will go on forever. Right?
4. Minnesota Vikings.
(Projected trade: Minnesota sends its first-, fourth-, sixth- and seventh-round picks in the 2002 draft, plus a third-round pick in 2003, a seventh-round pick in 2004 and a conditional fifth-round pick in 2005 to Buffalo for the Bills' first-round selection plus 7B and 7C picks in 2002, a fourth-round pick in 2003 and a conditional swap of fifth-round picks in 2008. Also, the teams agree to exchange Harry & David fruit baskets.) Mr. Spock, science officer, Federation starship Enterprise, NCC-1701. Using the mind-meld, Spock might be able to figure out what is going on in Randy Moss's head.
5. San Diego Chargers.
Britney Spears, perpetual teen queen, Jive Records. She's tougher than a lot of current Bolts offensive linemen, plus in sun-drenched San Diego she could bare her tummy all the time.
Britney Spears would be a force "in the middle" for the Chargers.
6. Dallas Cowboys.
Kenneth Lay, disgraced former CEO, Enron. The 'Boys tab this Texan of great personal integrity to fix the books and solve the team's running salary-cap problems. Lay immediately announces Dallas is $89 billion under the cap.
7. Cincinnati Bengals.
(Projected trade: Cinncy sends its first-, third- and seventh-round picks in 2002, an undisclosed pick in 2003 and sixth-round picks in 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007 to Buffalo for Minnesota's first- and sixth-round picks in 2002, Buffalo's projected free-agency compensatory pick in 2003 and Minnesota's conditional 2005 fifth pick. Also, the teams agree to sponsor each other's foreign exchange students.) Fred Woods, actual player, Massillon High School, Ohio. Cincinnati college picks always bust, and Massillon has a better long-term record than the Bengals. Check Massillon's "countdown to kickoff" meter here.
8. Kansas City Chiefs.
Ariel Sharon, leader, Likud Party. Brings an aggressive, attacking style. View minute-by-minute official-version dispatches from Israel operations in the West Bank via the Israeli Defense Force website. The Palestinian Authority site is temporarily off the air, owing to incoming ordnance. Its announcement, posted here, dryly notes that "The hard-working {Palestinian} technical staff maintaining webservers on the ground are dealing with shoot-to-kill curfews and other severe obstacles." Note to supporters of the Third Temple dream: It is not an auspicious sign that the Baltimore Ravens defense has a better human-rights record than Israel's prime minister.
9. Jacksonville Jaguars.
A clerical error could vault Washington tight end Jerramy Stevens into the first round.
This Florida club thinks it selected TE Jeremy Shockey of Miami, but the United States Supreme Court rules it actually chose TE Jerramy Stevens of Washington. Team officials protest that the league's butterfly-style draft ballots are too confusing.
10. Oakland Raiders.
(Projected trade: Oakland sends its first-, second- and seventh-round picks in 2002, its sixth-round pick in 2008, sixth-round pick in 2028 and computer-simulated sixth-round pick in 2145 to Buffalo for Minnesota's first-round pick in 2002, Cincinnati's sixth-round pick in 2006 and the right of first refusal on Buffalo's third-round pick in 2018. Also, teams agree that at the next league pot-luck dinner, the Bills will provide the main dishes and Raiders provide the salad and dessert.) Ted Koppel, anchor, "Nightline." His current team tried to trade him for a younger player, and he's really, really steamed about that -- a classic Raiders rehab project.
11. Indianapolis Colts.
Jared Jeffries, F, Indiana. Toothpick-slim soph hero of the Hoosiers' improbable run to the NCAA final declares jump to the NBA; Jeffries should be jumping to Dairy Queen for a milkshake. If significantly bulked up, he'd be muscular enough to be a punter.
12. Arizona (CAUTION: MAY CONTAIN FOOTBALL-LIKE SUBSTANCE) Cardinals.
It makes absolutely no difference whom the Cardinals draft, and it never will.
13. New Orleans Saints.
Karl Malone, F, Utah. Please move the Jazz back, so their name can make sense again. Lakers should return to Minnesota for same reason.
14. New Jersey Giants.
Iron Mike should fit right in with the dysfunctional Giants.
Mike Tyson, heavyweight, appearing in whatever state will take him. The G-Men fight amongst themselves so much that Tyson would be a calming influence.
15. Tennessee Flaming Thumbtacks.
Al Gore, deposed VP, Columbia University. Gore said he was going to "go back home and mend some fences," but continues to hang out in New York City and Europe. Bet he doesn't know the Thumbtacks moved to Nashville.
16. Atlanta Falcons.
Zell Miller, "Democrat," United States Senate. Ever since Republican Jim Jeffords left the party, swinging the Senate to the Democrats, Democrat Miller of Georgia has been expected to go Republican, swinging it back. Then, if the offer was right, he could change again. Miller could become the Chuck Bednarik of politics!
17. Cleveland Browns (Release 2.0).
Tom Petty, lead guitar, The Heartbreakers. TMQ thinks the Browns (Release 2.0) should merge with Cleveland's Rock and Roll Hall of Fame, producing the first singing football team. Stadium sound system would play wa-wa effects on visiting-team third downs.
18. Chesapeake Watershed Region Indigenous Persons.
Wes Chandler, WR, Florida. Steve Spurrier continues to stockpile former Gator receivers. (TMQ won't say "R*dsk*ns," and will explain why not in a future column.)
19. Denver Broncos.
TMQ can only dream about "Orange Julius" landing in Denver.
Julius Peppers, DE, North Carolina. OK, he's not likely to slip this far, but TMQ hopes he does so that headlines can proclaim: Orange Julius. Tuesday Morning Quarterback is a major Orange Julius fan, though finds it unsettling that the franchise's FAQs page cryptically boasts its drinks contain an unspecified "Smoothy Booster" plus mysterious "Nutrifiers" intended to enhance "mind or mood." I've given up enhancing my mind, but my mood continues to need work.
20. Seattle Seahawks.
JDAM, smart bomb, Boeing. This GPS PGM was MVP of the Afghan air campaign. If only Matt Hasselbeck could throw as accurately as the JDAM falls.
21. New Orleans Saints.
(Projected trade: Mike Ditka temporarily resumes control of the Saints' front office and sends all the team's remaining picks in 2002, plus all New Orleans selections in the 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010 drafts, to the Bills for Oakland's 1A pick in 2002. Buffalo agrees to pay shipping and handling costs for all these picks.) Ricky Williams, RB, Miami Dolphins.
22. New Jersey Jets.
Donna Karan, couturiére, Manhattan. Seriously, Jets, it's 2002. Do something about those unis.
23. Oakland Raiders.
Lawrence Tribe, JD, Harvard. Since Al Davis's hobby is filing lawsuits in an attempt to destroy the NFL, he might as well stockpile legal talent.
24. Baltimore Ravens.
Trent Dilfer, QB, Fresno State. Verily, the football gods hath punished this club for releasing Dilfer after he won 11 straight and brought home a ring. Verily, the punishment will grow worse in 2002.
25. Pittsburgh Steelers.
By drafting Mephistopheles, the Steelers hope to get another solid season out of Kordell Stewart.
(Projected trade: Steelers send first- and third-round picks in 2002 plus future selections to be negotiated by Colin Powell to Buffalo for the Saints' 1B pick in 2002, Cincinnati's sixth-round in 2005, Oakland's sixth-round in 2028 and the entire New Orleans 2009 draft. Also, the Steelers agree not to break any chain letters.) Mephistopheles, D, University of Gehenna. Last season Kordell Stewart made a deal with the devil to become a mature, effective quarterback; he just messed up the expiration date, and the deal ran out at kickoff of the AFC Championship. Get Mephistopheles on the roster, give him a bonus prorated to eternity for salary-cap purposes and keep this from happening again.
26. Philadelphia Eagles.
Trammell Crow, developer, Dallas. Crow's company has poured as much concrete as any in the world, so maybe it has the skills to fix the Vet playing surface.
27. San Francisco 49ers.
Mike Pearson, OT, Florida. Actual potential pick thrown in for variety.
28. Green Bay Packers.
Joseph Berardino, disgraced former CEO, Arthur Andersen. As the league's only publicly owned team, the Packers need the very best in accounting. Andersen promptly certifies that Green Bay will show a $583 billion profit in the second quarter. (Financial quarter, not game clock.) Andersen further certifies that every player on the current Packers roster will be first-ballot Hall of Fame and that Jennifer Lopez really can sing.
29. Chicago Bears.
HAL, megalomaniacal AI core, imaginary factory in Urbana. The evil computer at the center of "2001: A Space Odyssey" was programmed at the University of Illinois, where the Bears will play this season as Soldier Field is torn down and then rebuilt in order to make it more expensive. TMQ suggests that one of those red HAL sensors be embedded in QB Jim Miller's helmet. It would signal plays by saying in the spooky HAL voice, "Jim. Run the shotgun, Jim. The shotgun, Jim." If Miller called the wrong play, HAL would cut off his oxygen and Gatorade. (Quick, readers -- what does the name HAL mean, and what song did this sinister computer learn to sing as it became self-aware?)
30. Buffalo Bills.
Exhausted and emotionally spent from trading down so many times, the Bills miss their 15 minutes on the clock as all personnel are out at Starbucks ordering double Rapazapafrapachinos. On the plus side, Buffalo has cornered the market on future sixth-round picks.
31. St. Louis Rams.
Zebtron 5/pi'Q, morph back, University of Cassiopeia at 47 Ursae Majoris. Leadership of Kurt Warner's homeworld is not happy about Super Bowl letdown; space-alien reinforcements clearly needed. Zebtron, an n-dimensional energy being who can run the 40 in minus-4.3 seconds by generating a muon inversion field, should fit right in with the Rams receiver corps.
32. New England Patriots.
Patrick Henry, patriot, Virginia House of Burgesses. They were the perfect team to take the Super Bowl at this point in history, and they got their rings the old-fashioned way, by earning them. Even if the P-Men never win another game their faithful can, as Page 2's Bill Simmons has written, die happy.
Mel Kiper Watch
TMQ has loved everything about Mel Kiper since the day ESPN lost its collective mind and put him on the air. He's wacky, he's entertaining, he's a fountain of useless information, and he was the first member of the Baby Boom generation to just come out and admit he is totally, utterly obsessed with the NFL draft. Kiper has been able to make a living by being obsessed with the NFL draft. Only in America!
Kiper
To truly appreciate Kiper's nuttiness, you must sign up for the ESPN.com Insider feature and fork over $24.95. One shudders to think what it says about the decline of Western civilization that Tuesday Morning Quarterback is given away free but vast numbers of people will pay $24.95 for Mel Kiper. Nevertheless, he's worth it.
You must pony up for ESPN.com Insider to truly appreciate Kiper's nuttiness, because this will allow you to behold the full glory of his ever-changing mock drafts. So far Kiper has issued four, and they're all delightfully mutually contradictory. Mel has Levi Jones going as high as ninth, or in the middle of the first round, or falling out of the first altogether. He's got Joey Harrington going to Bengals, Bills or Carolina. He's got the Falcons picking William Green, or Jabar Gafney, or Ashley Lelie. He has Charles Grant going early, going late and not going at all. He's got Tennessee DT John Henderson going before teammate DT Albert Haynesworth and also going after him. And he's still not finished mocking! Kiper also sells a $25.95 Draft Report featuring a mock draft that picks six rounds, more than 200 simulated selections. No one, under any circumstances, could accurately forecast a sixth-round selection. ("With the 210th pick of the 2002 draft, Chicago selects Michael Moosbrugger, guard, Wake Forest.") But it doesn't matter that Mel's six-round mock draft is pure galimatias. That's the fun of it!
There are so many overlapping and mutually contradictory picks in Kiper's multiple forecasts that at least some of them will have to turn out to be right, if only by random chance -- then Mel will claim to have predicted it. Sticklers for precision might therefore object. But TMQ considers this part of the entertainment and proof of Kiper's loony genius. Pay for Insider and follow this guy.
(Note: Tuesday Morning Quarterback plans to run regular items shamelessly heaping praise upon ESPN, its personnel, management and on-air bobbleheads. There should be no problem with this blatant self-serving behavior so long as it is disclosed to readers.)
Boldly to go where no man has gone before
TMQ will now rush in where even Mel Kiper fears to tread and forecast the seventh round of the draft. Here is the incredible Tuesday Morning Quarterback seventh-round projection:
Pick No. 212: Houston. Marlon Bush, DT, Alabama-Birmingham.
Pick No. 213: Carolina. Courtland Bullard, LB, Ohio State.
Pick No. 214: Detroit. Samir Al-Amin, DB, Baylor.
Pick No. 215: Buffalo. DeMarcus Faggins, CB, Kansas State.
Pick No. 216: San Diego. Ma'ake Kemoeatu, DT, Utah.
Pick No. 217: Atlanta. Matt Holmlund, WR, Augustana.
Pick No. 218: Minnesota. Tango McCauley, G, Alabama State.
Pick No. 219: Cincinnati. DeVeren Johnson, WR, Sacred Heart.
Pick No. 220: Indianapolis. Joaquin Gonzalez, T, Miami of Florida.
Pick No. 221: Kansas City. Thatcher Szalay, G, Montana.
Pick No. 222: Jacksonville. Wes Pate, QB, Stephen F. Austin.
Pick No. 223: Arizona. Mike Vilimek, RB, Simon Fraser.
Pick No. 224: New Orleans. Josh Ochua, TE, Colorado State.
Pick No. 225: Tennessee. Antoine Lacy, RB, Eastern New Mexico.
Pick No. 226: New Jersey Giants. Cameron Peterka, PK, North Dakota.
Pick No. 227: Cleveland. Walt DeLong, OT, Georgetown of Kentucky.
Pick No. 228: Denver. Tony Wraggle, G, New Mexico State.
Pick No. 229: Houston. Dimitrius Breedlove, WR, Evangel of Missouri.
Pick No. 230: Washington. Kojo Aidoo, FB, McMaster of Ontario.
Pick No. 231: Denver. Wayne Madkin, QB, Mississippi State.
Pick No. 232: Seattle. Billy-Dee Greenwood, S, North Carolina.
Pick No. 233: Tampa. Orlando McGruder, CB, Waynesburg of Pennsylvania.
Pick No. 234: New England. Monsanto Pope, DT, Virginia.
Pick No. 235: Oakland. Ashante Woodyard, CB, Purdue.
Pick No. 236: Baltimore. Jake Houseright, LB, Virginia Tech.
Pick No. 237: Dallas. Antwan Hughes-Kirk, C, Texas.
Pick No. 238: Philadelphia. Ryan Tolhurst, WR, Richmond.
Pick No. 239: San Francisco. Dougie Allen, WR, Kentucky.
Pick No. 240: Tennessee. Jake Frysinger, DE, Michigan.
Pick No. 241: Miami. Courtland Bullard, LB, Ohio State.
Pick No. 242: Pittsburgh. Marlon Moore-Moye, LB, Maryland.
Pick No. 243: St. Louis. Jake Schifino, WR, Akron.
Pick No. 244: New England. Zac Zedalis, C, Florida.
Pick No. 245: Atlanta. Andy Lawrence, OT, Linfield.
Pick No. 246: New Jersey Jets. Grant Irons, DE, Notre Dame.
Pick No. 247: Jax. Jamonte Robinson, LB, Missouri.
Pick No. 248: Jax. Bradford Raphlet, P, Abilene Christian.
Pick No. 249: San Francisco. Dans LaPoubelle, LB, Indiana of Pennsylvania.
Pick No. 250: Buffalo. DeRoderick Nash, DB, Albany of Georgia.
Pick No. 251: Tampa. Jeremy Hibbeln, QB, St. Francis of Indiana.
Pick No. 252: Buffalo. Dicenzo Miller, RB, Mississippi State.
Pick No. 253: Detroit. Marques Glaze, RB, Bloomsburg of Pennsylvania.
Pick No. 254: Tampa. Patrick Crummey, G, Youngstown State.
Pick No. 255: Tampa. Jon Oosterhuis, DE, New Hampshire.
Pick No. 256: San Francisco. Ryan Boozer, LB, Abilene Christian.
Pick No. 257: Washington. Jykine Bradley, CB, Middle Tennessee.
Pick No. 258: Carolina. Muskingum Barnes, DT, Louisiana State.
Pick No. 259: Detroit. Faaesea Mailo, G, UCLA.
Pick No. 260: Buffalo. Adam Wulfeck, P, Cincinnati.
Pick No. 261: Houston. Syniker Taylor, S, Mississippi.
No one has ever forecast the entire seventh round before, and no one ever will again! Of course, all my seventh-round predictions are certain to be wrong; this column's motto is, All Predictions Wrong or Your Money Back. Yet every name above is that of an actual potential late-round choice who has crash-landed on somebody's draft board. Every name, that is, except one.
Tuesday Morning Quarterback Challenge
Each TMQ will end with a Challenge -- it's not a contest, merely a challenge, and the final decision will be completely arbitrary. If you know which seventh-round name is phony, submit it here, append a clever comment and don't forget to include your e-mail address. The victor, chosen arbitrarily, may receive a stylish TMQ cap or some other priceless emolument.
Posted by tien mao in TMQ at 9:45 AM
