November 3, 2004

Blogging Away the Election

POST #    1386

With Slate publishing exit poll numbers from the National Election Pool as they get them, the prospect of a roller coaster ride are high - especially in the competitive swing states. In New York, the results were determined well before 6 AM today.

I'm going to attempt to live-blog this whole election thing. Not necessarily for readers, but for me. I can follow my bouts of mania with bouts of depression, hopefully with mania at the end. Someone get me some lithium!

1:16 AM - Well, it's been a long night and it looks like four more years of hellish rule by a piece of shit president. Just plain dandy. I can't believe people actually think four more years of Bush will be a good thing. I believe that this country is/was on the brink of major change, and now it's going to the shitter. So much for the checks and balances. The executive, legislative and judicial branches of the government seem to be in Republican control. Sure, maybe the Supreme Court is not in their hands now, but in the next four years, it looks very likely that Bush will be making some appointments.

I hope that things will be different when I wake up.

1:00 AM - Well, NBC has called Ohio and Alaska for Bush, giving Bush a 269-207 lead in their calculations. To win, Kerry needs to win all the other uncalled races just to tie - HI, NM, NH, MI, MN, IA, WI, NV.. The Drudge Report calls the election for Bush. Sigh.

12:50 AM - It seems like Fox News calls NH for Kerry, but also calls Ohio for Bush. If so, that pretty much means that Kerry is done.

12:45 AM - With voters in Ohio still waiting, I wonder about a few things. Can they go eat? Can they leave the line to walk around? What if they need to pee or something? Who holds their line?

12:35 AM - Kerry gets the 4th EV from ABC now.

12:28 AM - With 79% of the precincts reporting in Ohio, there are still people waiting. Some waited 10 hours to vote and some may not finish voting until 3 AM!!!

12:25 AM - Welcome to the party NBC. NBC finally calls Florida for Bush and says Ohio is now crucial for Kerry.

12:17 AM - Hahaha, on CNN, the graphics blocked out the "ysis" in analysis.

12:07 AM - We reach Tuesday and no president-elect yet. MSNBC and NBC are calling Oregon for Kerry, but still are not calling Florida, making it a 207-206 dead heat, with Bush leading.

11:39 PM - ABC calls Florida to Bush. It comes down to Ohio for Kerry. If he wins that, he has a chance. If not, it's over. ABC has it at 237-188, Bush. If Kerry loses Ohio, he has to win NH, CO, and NV to win. That's along with the other states that Gore won in 2000.

11:35 PM - CBS has reported for quite a while now that Colorado is going to Bush and Washington goes to Kerry, while no other networks are calling that the Colorado result. 219-199, with Bush in the lead.

11:16 PM - I've resorted to dumping the popcorn from bowl into mouth. This was not a great idea. The seeds go into the mouth first. D'oh.

11:07 PM - On ABC, Joe Lockhart says an Iowa affiliate calls the race there for Kerry. No news on that yet from any networks. A nice resource that Johnny pointed out, the Washington Post has a table on who calls what race and when.

11:00 PM - ABC finally calls PA. CA to Kerry, ID to Bush, no call on WA, OR, or HI. Bush now leads, 209-188.

10:50 PM - MSNBC calls PA for Kerry and AZ for Bush. 205-133. Without PA, there would have been no hope for Kerry. A crucial state for him to pick up. I still believe he needs Ohio or Florida to turn in his favor. It's not necessarily looking good.

10:40 PM - CBS reports that the Kerry camp says they are confident about PA, but not OH or FL. The Bush camp says the same thing in their favor.

10:17 PM - Montana goes to Bush, 195-112.

10:15 PM - ABC reports that blacks in PA made up 13% of the voters in 2004 vs 7% in 2000 and young made up 21% vs 14%, with young people voting for Kerry 62% of the time. Peter Jennings says that young voters aren't as irresponsible as he thought. Just great Peter.

10:07 PM - The "Show Me" state goes to Bush. There's a sea of red that is threatening to envelope Illinois right now. Danger, danger!! 192-112.

10:00 PM - Four more states close. UT goes to Bush. IO, NV and MT. ABC now projects Arkansas. Now, it's 181-112. I'm back to gummy candy.

Posted by tien mao in Politics at 1:20 AM

 

 

9:50 PM - Footage from the White House hits the airwaves. One thought...the Bush daughters have some stems.

9:38 PM - Bush invites press into the White House residence. ABC's Terry Moran reports that the Bush camp might try to speak to their supporters out there in the West. Nevada, New Mexico, Hawaii, Iowa. All those states have polls that are still open. Hopefully, some people will be turned off by all this. Especially if Bush flubs his impromptu press conference.

9:32 PM - LA and MS both go to Bush. So Kerry Remains at 112 and Bush picks up 15 EVs. I've moved on to popcorn, which is making it very difficult to type. Looks like Arkansas is taken off everyone's board, so it's 171-113, Bush. Give or take one EV from each side. ABC just showed some footage from PA where people are waiting in long lines still to vote. Gov. Rendell says there's a huge turnout amongst black voters.

9:18 PM - Wow, ABC just said that Wisconsin has walk-up registration. You can show an ID or have a friend vouch for you! Vouch! Hmm, does that mean "On Wisconsin" for Kerry or Bush?

9:10 PM - Justin brings us this quote from Michigan, which has yet to be called, "Michigan and John Kerry: Go Blue!" So obviously if you're a U of M fan, you should have voted Kerry. If you're an MSU fan, you're shit out of luck. There's no Green and White party. Nader? Ha! Throw that vote away!

9:00 PM - 15 states close. Bush gets TX, ND, KS, SD, WY, NE (4 of 5), CO's ballot initiative fails. Kerry wins NY, RI. So, depending on where you're watching, it's Bush's 155 or 161 to Kerry's 112. Right before the update, James Carville was saying how if PA and OH go to Kerry, the electoral math gets considerably more difficult for Bush. I kind of like CNN's big board of TVs. It's almost like CNNfn or something like that. I think I just ate about half of my Build-A-Burger gummies. It might be time for some real food. Maybe some popcorn. That's real, no? CNN is saying that one polling place in Allegheny County, PA (as in Pittsburgh) will have provisional ballots until 9:30 for those that have yet to vote. Toobin is saying that some polling places in Ohio will remain open for several hours.

8:41 PM - Incidentally, CNN and ABC have not given Arkansas to Bush yet. So they have the tally at 102-77.

8:41 PM - The Haribo Build-A-Burger gummy candy is opened. The start of the sugar rush begins. Surely, I will crash by 9:30. Strangely, they do not taste like burger.

8:37 PM - ABC calls NC for Bush, 1.5 hours after the polls closed. 108-77, Bush.

8:30 PM - Rather says, "It won't mean a thing if they don't get those swing...states." ABC says SC goes to Bush, AR and NC are not called, VA goes to bush. Bush retakes the lead, 97-77.

8:20 PM - They are talking about food on ABC now, saying the White House has a buffet with salmon. This brings me to what I've eaten so far. Just carrots and a bowl of cereal. I was considering pasta, but that seems too time consuming to do, but I might succumb to it in about 10 minutes. I also have some great gummy candy and popcorn, Doritos, Cheeze Doodles, and pretzels. Oh, and ice cream and bananas. So far, the states have gone the way they have in 2000.

A clarification on the 8:00 PM entry. Maine can split their votes based on their congressional districts. The state winner gets two of the four electoral votes with the others going to the winner of the districts, which is why NBC split them. A pity if the election came down to that one vote, no?

8:18 PM - Joe kindly points out that Zogby is predicting a 311-213 victory for Kerry. Seems a bit one sided, so we'll see how it stands. Also, a bunch of the polls were taken via the Internet. Is the margin for error even larger for those?

8:09 PM - ABC News reminds us that the red word by two of their female reporters does not mean they are pro-GOP.

8:00 PM - NBC reports Kerry wins IL, NJ, MA, MD, CT. Bush wins TN, AL, OK. Kerry gets 3 of 4 for ME, 3 for DC, and DE. Too early to call MO right now. Kerry takes his first lead, 77-66. Good to see that they could call NJ, especially since it was a tie as late as polls from this weekend. Chalk it up to 9/11 and a lot of victims coming from the Garden State. ABC says polls are closed, but text messages are being sent to people there that if they are in line, they can vote, even though the polls closed at 7:30. They also noted that in some places, lines are 5 hours long. FIVE HOURS?!? Damn, that's just insane. Even in New York, people are waiting in line to vote. Good to finally see that people care.

7:57 PM - Ha! WABC is actually showing today's lotto numbers during the commercial break. I should have played, because if I won, then maybe I wouldn't care so much about this election mumbo jumbo...haha, who am I kidding?!?

7:47 PM - ABC has the rainbow coalition of analysts. A black man in Cali, a man of some sort of Asian descent (Middle East or Indian sub-con), and a short, short man in George Stephanopoulos.

7:42 PM Slate updates their #s. Kerry +2 in FL, +2 in OH, +6 in MI, +7 in PA, +1 in IO, +3 in WI, +6 in MN, +10 in NH, +2 in NM, -1 in CO, -9 in AK, -5 in MO, +26 in NY, +1 in NV, +10 in NJ, and -9 in WV. This of course assumes you all know your state abbreviations. Lots of states close polls at 8 PM. More updates coming, natch.

7:30 PM - CNN projections Bush gets W. Va, a state that was a toss-up at one point. Nothing for N. Carolina, and Ohio. Ohio is the new Florida like blue is the new black, says CNN's analyst. Bush 39, Kerry 3.

7:22 - I just put the photo from my voting booth this morning. It's funny, I'm an old hat at using that machine, using it ever since I was 14 at Stuyvesant. We used those for all the student government elections, which is kind of cool in hindsight. While voting this morning, one of the workers at the polling station said that there was a limit for how much time you could spend in a booth. It didn't seem like a hard limit, but she did say that after about 3 minutes, they want to move people along, "especially in elections like these." It took me longer to take the picture than to flip those switches.

7:12 PM - CNN exit polls, 55 to 44% feel safe about terror vs not safe, 44% to 54% feel bad vs good about economy, war in Iraq 49% approve, 47% disapprove. Larry King points out that this is based on national exit numbers. CBS is reporting that polls in some states may remain open longer in W. Va and Wisc. Polls close at 7:30 in Florida, Ohio, W. Va, and N. Carolina. Man, Dan Rather is hard to understand. And he's tan! The CBS Data Center is nice though. Gotta love fancy touch screens. And it looks like those exit polls that CNN was using are also being used by CBS. Newsflash!! CBS News doesn't choose winners in the election!

7:02 PM - Since some polls have closed, ABC is making some calls. Again, not calling until polls are closed. GA, IN, KY for Bush, VT for Kerry. VA and SC are closed, but they aren't calling it yet. While it's early, that's a bit crazy because Bush won VA by 8% and SC by 16% in 2000. Bush 34, Kerry 3. CNN has the popular vote at 56% Bush, 44% Kerry.

6:58 PM - Funny, ABC News just said they made some overhauls since 2000's Florida fiasco. They have some sort of checks and balances so "once they change the color of a state, it stays that color"...or something like that. They also said they won't call a state if it's within 1%. Not sure if that's their system or the National Election Pool.

5:11 PM - Some early results. Granted, very early. Kerry is +1 in Florida, +1 in Ohio, +5 in Wisconsin, +4 in Michigan, +18 in Minnesota, -2 in Nevada, -2 in N. Carolina, -7 in Colorado. It should be noted that some early projections in 2000 had Gore ahead by a bigger margin that the +1 in some of these exit polls, so the final result is obviously far from settled. And if that +18 in Minnesota is any indicator, these numbers are far from accurate.

So wait, am I reading the early exit polls correctly? It looks like all of the swing states are swung left by a margin of 1.

This whole thing is giving me a stomach ache.

Posted by: corie at November 2, 2004 7:44 PM

yes, but in 2000, gore was actually projected to win florida based on exit polls.

Posted by: tien [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 2, 2004 7:54 PM

According to the New York State Voter's Bill of Rights, a registered voter has the right to "take time in voting".

p.s. zogby.com is predicting Kerry 311 vs. Bush 213.

Posted by: joe at November 2, 2004 8:13 PM

mmm. candy. good idea. i wants me some gummies.

Posted by: corie at November 2, 2004 9:00 PM

Hey there, neat idea, get hopped up on leftover candy ;), Your Ny (right) Im in cali so its not nearly as late yrt, heres some helpful links Im looking at, and I'll be watching the John Stewart :P

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/3032553/?ta=y

tallys eletoral votes as theyre called, so does yahoo.com, but i think they slightly conflict with those at msnbc so, I dun know, Im going with msnbc since they have J.K. slightly higher, but meh, the brain hurts. Also>>>

http://www.electoral-vote.com./

Tallys close states by electoral count given current polls.

good luck staying up :) take care.

Posted by: t.g. at November 2, 2004 11:38 PM

If interested...photos from Times Square tonight.

I am going to get very depressed now.

Posted by: Alexis at November 3, 2004 1:23 AM

this isn't going to be decided for awhile. and by "awhile" i mean weeks. there are so many provisional ballots out there in ohio and so many absentee ballots in florida. they'll be counted, recounted, argued over. but this time, we're prepared.

do not put your heads down. dig in. stay strong. hope is on the way.

Posted by: dragonballyee at November 3, 2004 2:14 AM

This is terrible, awful, horrible.
What are people thinking when they go to those voting booths?

Posted by: yp at November 3, 2004 9:51 AM

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