October 22, 2003

Evil Empire vs. Marlins - 7 Games?

POST #    467

A study by the American Institute of Physics found that the World Series is extended to 7 games more often than probability would suggest. The study, released last Friday, found that in the last 50 years, 48% of Fall Classics went to 7 games. When extending their research to 1905, they found 37.2% occurrence for a 7 game series. According to their research, however, in an even match-up, the 7th game should only occur 31.25% of the time.

But how often does the even match-up ever happen? If teams are uneven, then there would be a less likely chance that the World Series goes down to the final game and lowering the frequency. The study looks at two factors that might have an effect on going the distance - home-field advantage and baseball strategy. The study says, "the 6th game is played in the stadium of the team that has been on the road 60% of the time. This means that the home team may have a better chance of winning the sixth game--and bringing the series to game 7." On baseball strategy, the study contends that a team that is trailing 3-2 will do everything it can to get to game 7, since they don't have to hold anything back.

I think the AIP might have too much time on their hands, but it's kind of interesting. Why do I only write about it now if the study was released Friday? Because the NY Times just wrote about it today, and we all know that if it isn't covered in The Times, then it's not real news (there was a thick layer of sarcasm on that). Since the study was done Friday, it says nothing about Florida's chances when down 2-1, but the Evil Empire did reclaim home-field advantage.

- The full AIP report
- The NY Times article on the report

Posted by tien mao in Sports at 9:55 AM



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